Climate Change

Alkishe AA, Peterson AT, Samy AM. Climate change influences on the potential geographic distribution of the disease vector tick Ixodes ricinus . PLoS ONE [Internet]. 2017. Publisher's VersionAbstract


Ixodes ricinus is a species of hard tick that transmits several important diseases in Europe and North Africa, including Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis. Climate change is affecting the geographic distributions and abundances of arthropod vectors, which in turn influence the geographic distribution and epidemiology of associated vector-borne diseases. To date, few studies have investigated effects of climate change on the spatial distribution of I. ricinus at continental extents. Here, we assessed the potential distribution of I. ricinus under current and future climate conditions to understand how climate change will influence the geographic distribution of this important tick vector in coming decades.


We used ecological niche modeling to estimate the geographic distribution of I. ricinus with respect to current climate, and then assessed its future potential distribution under different climate change scenarios. This approach integrates occurrence records of I. ricinus with six relevant environmental variables over a continental extent that includes Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East. Future projections were based on climate data from 17 general circulation models (GCMs) under 2 representative concentration pathway emissions scenarios (RCPs), for the years 2050 and 2070.


The present and future potential distributions of I. ricinus showed broad overlap across most of western and central Europe, and in more narrow zones in eastern and northern Europe, and North Africa. Potential expansions were observed in northern and eastern Europe. These results indicate that I. ricinus populations could emerge in areas in which they are currently lacking, posing increased risks to human health in those areas. However, the future of I. ricinusticks in some important regions such the Mediterranean was unclear owing to high uncertainty in model predictions.

Vázquez-Rowe I, Larrea-Gallegos G, Villanueva-Rey P, Gilardino A. Climate change mitigation opportunities based on carbon footprint estimates of dietary patterns in Peru . PLoS ONE [Internet]. 2017. Publisher's VersionAbstract

Food consumption accounts for an important proportion of the world GHG emissions per capita. Previous studies have delved into the nature of dietary patterns, showing that GHG reductions can be achieved in diets if certain foods are consumed rather than other, more GHG intensive products. For instance, vegetarian and low-meat diets have proved to be less carbon intensive than diets that are based on ruminant meat. These environmental patterns, increasingly analyzed in developed nations, are yet to be assessed in countries liked Peru where food purchase represents a relatively high percentage of the average household expenditure, ranging from 38% to 51% of the same. Therefore, food consumption can be identified as a potential way to reduce GHG emissions in Peru. However, the Peruvian government lacks a specific strategy to mitigate emissions in this sector, despite the recent ratification of the Paris Accord. In view of this, the main objective of this study is to analyze the environmental impacts of a set of 47 Peruvian food diet profiles, including geographical and socioeconomic scenarios. In order to do this, Life Cycle Assessment was used as the methodological framework to obtain the overall impacts of the components in the dietary patterns observed and primary data linked to the composition of diets were collected from the Peruvian National Institute for Statistics (INEI). Life cycle inventories for the different products that are part of the Peruvian diet were obtained from a set of previous scientific articles and reports regarding food production. Results were computed using the IPCC 2013 assessment method to estimate GHG emissions. Despite variations in GHG emissions from a geographical perspective, no significant differences were observed between cities located in the three Peruvian natural regions (i.e., coast, Andes and Amazon basin). In contrast, there appears to be a strong, positive correlation between GHG emissions and social expenditure or academic status. When compared to GHG emissions computed in the literature for developed nations, where the average caloric intake is substantially higher, diet-related emissions in Peru were in the low range. Our results could be used as a baseline for policy support to align nutritional and health policies in Peru with the need to reduce the environmental impacts linked to food production.

McCoy D, McManus MA, Kotubetey Kʻiahonui, Kawelo AHʻilei, Young C, D’Andrea B, Ruttenberg KC, Alegado R ʻA. Large-scale climatic effects on traditional Hawaiian fishpond aquaculture . PLoS ONE [Internet]. 2017. Publisher's VersionAbstract

Aquaculture accounts for almost one-half of global fish consumption. Understanding the regional impact of climate fluctuations on aquaculture production thus is critical for the sustainability of this crucial food resource. The objective of this work was to understand the role of climate fluctuations and climate change in subtropical coastal estuarine environments within the context of aquaculture practices in Heʻeia Fishpond, Oʻahu Island, Hawaiʻi. To the best of our knowledge, this was the first study of climate effects on traditional aquaculture systems in the Hawaiian Islands. Data from adjacent weather stations were analyzed together with in situwater quality instrument deployments spanning a 12-year period (November 2004 –November 2016). We found correlations between two periods with extremely high fish mortality at Heʻeia Fishpond (May and October 2009) and slackening trade winds in the week preceding each mortality event, as well as surface water temperatures elevated 2–3°C higher than the background periods (March-December 2009). We posit that the lack of trade wind-driven surface water mixing enhanced surface heating and stratification of the water column, leading to hypoxic conditions and stress on fish populations, which had limited ability to move within net pen enclosures. Elevated water temperature and interruption of trade winds previously have been linked to the onset of El Niño in Hawaiʻi. Our results provide empirical evidence regarding El Niño effects on the coastal ocean, which can inform resource management efforts about potential impact of climate variation on aquaculture production. Finally, we provide recommendations for reducing the impact of warming events on fishponds, as these events are predicted to increase in magnitude and frequency as a consequence of global warming.

Jaeger WK, Amos A, Bigelow DP, Chang H, Conklin DR, Haggerty R, Langpap C, Moore K, Mote PW, Nolin AW, et al. Finding water scarcity amid abundance using human–natural system models . Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences [Internet]. 2017;114 (45). Publisher's VersionAbstract

Water scarcity afflicts societies worldwide. Anticipating water shortages is vital because of water’s indispensable role in social-ecological systems. But the challenge is daunting due to heterogeneity, feedbacks, and water’s spatial-temporal sequencing throughout such systems. Regional system models with sufficient detail can help address this challenge. In our study, a detailed coupled human–natural system model of one such region identifies how climate change and socioeconomic growth will alter the availability and use of water in coming decades. Results demonstrate how water scarcity varies greatly across small distances and brief time periods, even in basins where water may be relatively abundant overall. Some of these results were unexpected and may appear counterintuitive to some observers. Key determinants of water scarcity are found to be the cost of transporting and storing water, society’s institutions that circumscribe human choices, and the opportunity cost of water when alternative uses compete.

Myers SS. Planetary health: protecting human health on a rapidly changing planet . The Lancet [Internet]. 2017. Publisher's VersionAbstract

The impact of human activities on our planet's natural systems has been intensifying rapidly in the past several decades, leading to disruption and transformation of most natural systems. These disruptions in the atmosphere, oceans, and across the terrestrial land surface are not only driving species to extinction, they pose serious threats to human health and wellbeing. Characterising and addressing these threats requires a paradigm shift. In a lecture delivered to the Academy of Medical Sciences on Nov 13, 2017, I describe the scale of human impacts on natural systems and the extensive associated health effects across nearly every dimension of human health. I highlight several overarching themes that emerge from planetary health and suggest advances in the way we train, reward, promote, and fund the generation of health scientists who will be tasked with breaking out of their disciplinary silos to address this urgent constellation of health threats. I propose that protecting the health of future generations requires taking better care of Earth's natural systems.

Azage M, Kumie A, Worku A, Bagtzoglou AC, Anagnostou E. Effect of climatic variability on childhood diarrhea and its high risk periods in northwestern parts of Ethiopia . PLoS ONE [Internet]. 2017. Publisher's VersionAbstract


Increasing climate variability as a result of climate change will be one of the public health challenges to control infectious diseases in the future, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa including Ethiopia.


To investigate the effect of climate variability on childhood diarrhea (CDD) and identify high risk periods of diarrheal diseases.


The study was conducted in all districts located in three Zones (Awi, West and East Gojjam) of Amhara Region in northwestern parts of Ethiopia. Monthly CDD cases for 24 months (from July 2013 to June 2015) reported to each district health office from the routine surveillance system were used for the study. Temperature, rainfall and humidity data for each district were extracted from satellite precipitation estimates and global atmospheric reanalysis. The space-time permutation scan statistic was used to identify high risk periods of CDD. A negative binomial regression was used to investigate the relationship between cases of CDD and climate variables. Statistical analyses were conducted using SaTScan program and StataSE v. 12.


The monthly average incidence rate of CDD was 11.4 per 1000 (95%CI 10.8–12.0) with significant variation between males [12.5 per 1000 (95%CI 11.9 to 13.2)] and females [10.2 per 1000 (95%CI 9.6 to 10.8)]. The space-time permutation scan statistic identified the most likely high risk period of CDD between March and June 2014 located in Huletej Enese district of East Gojjam Zone. Monthly average temperature and monthly average rainfall were positively associated with the rate of CDD, whereas the relative humidity was negatively associated with the rate of CDD.


This study found that the most likely high risk period is in the beginning of the dry season. Climatic factors have an association with the occurrence of CDD. Therefore, CDD prevention and control strategy should consider local weather variations to improve programs on CDD.